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Longs Eke Out Advantage Trading Chipotle in Wake of After-Hours Earnings Moves


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Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) is due with its Q2 results in the extended hours on Thursday, July 21, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $0.90 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion.

CMG has widened its earnings-driven after-hours trade in next-day regular session play in 18 of 32 quarters over the last eight years.

Heading into the quarterly results, shorts are recording a mixed pattern. Longs historically see their earnings-driven after-hours gains bulk up with additional upside in next-day regular session trade.

The stock has declined 17 times in reaction to earnings over the 32 quarters for which we have data. It has reversed that move eight times and widened nine times in next-day trade. Of the 15 quarterly gains, shares extended that move nine times, or 60% of the time.

On April 26, 2016, CMG declined 5.1% in evening trade after missing Q1 sales estimates but also posting a smaller-than-expected loss. The stock moved lower the next day, closing the April 27 regular session down 6.4%.

On Feb. 2, 2016, CMG tumbled 8.4% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 revenue expectations and forecasting a difficult year ahead. The stock cut its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 3 regular session off 4.7%.

On Oct. 20, 2015, CMG declined 7.2% in night trade after missing Q3 earnings estimates and meeting on revenue. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, closing the Oct. 21 regular session off 5.8%.

On July 21, 2015, CMG dipped 0.1% in after-hours trade after meeting Q2 expectations. The stock reversed sharply the next day, ending the July 22 regular session up 7.7%.

On April 21, 2015, CMG declined 5.2% in night trade after topping Q1 earnings estimates but coming in shy on revenue. The stock was hit for sharper declines the next day, closing the April 22 regular session down 7.4%.

On Feb. 3, 2015, CMG dropped 6.4% in evening trade after beating Q4 earnings expectations and meeting on revenue. The stock added modestly to that downside in the Feb. 4 regular session, ending down 6.9%.

On Oct. 20, 2014, CMG declined 4.6% in night trade despite topping Q3 Street estimates. It moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the Oct. 21 regular session down 6.9%.

On July 21, 2014, CMG charged 9.7% higher in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations. The stock added to its gains the following day, closing the July 22 regular session up 11.8%.

On April 17, 2014, CMG gained 5% in pre-market trade after missing Q1 earnings expectations but beating on sales. The stock reversed direction in that day’s regular session, ending down 5.9%.

On Jan. 30, 2014, CMG soared 12.6% in night trade after beating on Q4 sales and meeting earnings expectations. The stock held most of its gains the next day but narrowed slightly, ending the Jan. 31 regular session up 11.7%.

On Oct. 17, 2013, CMG gained 7.9% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 expectations. The stock jumped higher the following day, closing the Oct. 18 regular session up 16.1%.

On July 18, 2013, CMG advanced 4.6% in night trade after topping the Q2 Street consensus. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the July 19 regular session up 8.5%.

On April 18, 2013, CMG gained 4.5% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 expectations. The stock soared the next day, ending the April 19 regular session up 11.5%.

On Feb. 5, 2013, CMG slipped 0.6% in after-hours trade after beating on revenue and meeting on earnings. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Feb. 6 regular session up 5.7%.

On Oct. 18, 2012, CMG tumbled 10.5% in night trade after missing Q3 estimates. The stock was hammered further south the next day, ending the Oct. 19 regular session off 15%.

On July 19, 2012, CMG slumped 11.7% in after-hours trade after missing Q2 revenue expectations. The stock plummeted lower the next day, closing the July 20 regular session 21.5%.

On April 19, 2012, CMG edged up 0.9% in night trade after topping Q1 estimates. It reversed direction the next day, closing the April 20 regular session off 2.6%.

On Feb. 1, 2012, CMG declined 2% in evening trade after missing earnings estimates. The stock recorded the same 2% drop in the Feb. 2 regular session.

On Oct. 20, 2011, CMG advanced 4% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. The stock jumped higher the next day, rising 8.3% by the close on Oct. 21.

On July 19, 2011, the stock fell 3.9% after Q2 mixed results. Shares fell a slimmer 1.1% the next day.

On April 20, 2011, CMG declined 3.5% in after-hours action despite topping Q1 expectations. The stock added modestly to its negative trade the next day, ending the April 21 regular session down 3.7%.

On Feb. 10, 2011, CMG surged 8.6% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates. CMG cut its upside sharply the next day, ending the Feb. 11 regular session up 4.7%.

On Oct. 21, 2010, CMG gained 4.3% in night trade after topping Q3 estimates. The stock soared higher the following day, closing the Oct. 22 regular session up 14.8%.

On July 22, 2010, the stock gained 3.2% during extended-hours trading after a Q2 beat. Shares rose a stronger 9.2% the next day.

On April 22, 2010, the stock was up 5.6% after a Q1 beat. Shares rose a smaller 2.6% the next day.

On Feb. 11, 2010, the stock fell 3% after an earnings beat but a revenue miss. Shares rebounded to rise 3.7% the next day.

On Oct. 22, 2009, the stock fell 3.9% during extended-hours trading after Q3 EPS beat and sales were in line. Shares fell a wider 8% the next day.

On July 22, 2009, CMG declined 1% in after-hours trade after reporting Q2 revenue shy of expectations. The stock turned higher the following day, ending the July 23 regular session with a 3.3% gain.

On April 22, 2009, the stock jumped 9.6% after the company easily beat year-ago results. Shares fell 0.2% the next day.

On Feb. 14, 2008, CMG was hit for a 13.2% decline in after-hours trade after coming in shy of Q4 earnings expectations. The downside was trimmed the next day as CMG closed the regular session with a 3.1% decline.

On Oct. 30, 2007, CMG gained 2.6% in night trade after topping Q3 expectations. It added to its upside on Oct. 31, ending the day with a 4.1% advance.

On July 31, 2007, CMG firmed 5.2% in evening action on the heels of better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock leaped higher on Aug. 1, rising 12.2% between the bells.

On May 1, 2007, CMG advanced 5% in after-hours play after blowing past Q1 Street estimates. The stock ballooned higher on May 2, rocketing 17.8% by the close.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Longs Eke Out Advantage Trading Chipotle in Wake of After-Hours Earnings Moves Reviewed by on . Shutterstock photo Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) is due with its Q2 results in the extended hours on Thursday, July 21, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expec Shutterstock photo Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG ) is due with its Q2 results in the extended hours on Thursday, July 21, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expec Rating:
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